Democrats take Congress, but Trump retains grip on foreign policy

The Democratic majority gains constitutional powers over war declarations, military funding, and executive oversight, yet these tools have grown increasingly brittle. Since the Vietnam War, the legislature has consistently deferred to the White House on international affairs. Even where Congress retains fiscal authority, Trump’s reliance on executive privilege and his practice of withholding authorized spending—known as pocket rescissions—create a formidable barrier to any legislative pushback.

Analysts suggest the administration’s course remains fixed. James Green, a fellow at the Center for European Reform, likens the current policy to a vehicle on a highway: Congress might force a turn signal, but it cannot realistically change the route. Furthermore, legislation like the Graham Act has inadvertently granted the White House expanded tariff powers, potentially arming Trump with legal leverage to pressure European nations over fuel imports.

Rather than a shift in power, observers anticipate a period of frustration. Juraj Majcin of the European Policy Centre suggests a hostile Congress could provoke the president to double down on his most contentious stances. For European leaders, the challenge now lies in navigating a path toward 2028, as the progressive wing of the Democratic Party signals a pivot toward industrial and climate policy, potentially deprioritizing traditional security guarantees for the continent.