Headline U.S. inflation is set to drop to 3.9% year-on-year in June, according to data from Truflation. While declining energy and food costs drive this headline moderation, the firm’s real-time index signals that underlying price pressures in the services sector remain stubborn, complicating the final descent toward the Federal Reserve’s target.
The latest forecast from the Zurich-based data provider suggests a month-on-month headline increase of just 0.01%. This cooling is largely attributed to a 7.9% drop in gasoline prices and a 0.4% dip in food costs. Simultaneously, goods inflation fell 0.7% as supply-chain pressures eased and inventory conditions improved across the consumer market.
However, core inflation remains a point of concern. By excluding volatile food and energy components, Truflation projects a 0.26% monthly rise, holding the annual core rate at 2.9%. This resilience is fueled by sustained upward pressure in sectors such as education, which climbed 8.6% year-on-year, and housing. Utilities also contributed to the burden, rising 2.2% in June as early summer cooling demand surged.
Stefan Rust, founder and CEO of Truflation, argues that traditional monthly snapshots often fail to capture these turning points in real time. With core inflation expected to hover between 2.6% and 2.9% over the coming quarter, the path toward the 2% target appears increasingly protracted. The firm, which tracks over 15 million product prices, intends for this data to provide institutional participants a more granular view of whether inflation is broadening or simply shifting between economic sectors.
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