Farmer sentiment hits 18-month low as input costs bite

The survey of 400 farmers, conducted mid-June, reveals a deepening pessimism regarding the industry's immediate health. The Current Conditions Index slumped to an 18-month low of 102, while the Future Expectations Index fell by 7 points. Financial optimism remains scarce: only 12% of respondents feel their operations are in a better position than a year ago, and just 22% anticipate improvement over the coming 12 months.

High input costs top the list of concerns for 47% of producers, followed by low market prices at 23%. This outlook has stifled capital investment, with the Farm Capital Investment Index sinking to 40—its lowest point since September 2024. Michael Langemeier, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, noted that while financial performance is restricted by costs, producers are simultaneously navigating complex shifts in trade and technology adoption.

Skepticism remains high regarding the integration of digital tools. While some see potential for increased production, 52% of respondents reported seeing no meaningful benefit from AI in agriculture, with a significant majority citing concerns over the practical application of automated recommendations. Despite these domestic pressures, farmers maintain a long-term faith in trade, with 43% expecting export growth over the next five years and 85% affirming the benefits of free trade for the American economy.