The SipSource forecast, which tracks depletion data across 20 major wholesalers, suggests that the total core spirits market will see its growth rates shift from -4.19% in early 2026 to -3.68% by the second quarter of 2027. While this represents a technical improvement, the figures confirm that the sector is still struggling to regain its footing after a period of sustained cooling.
US Spirits Industry Faces Prolonged Slump Through 2027
The U.S. spirits market remains trapped in a negative growth cycle, with industry projections indicating that while the steep declines of early 2026 are beginning to bottom out, a return to genuine expansion is unlikely before mid-2027, according to the latest data from the Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America.
Francis Creighton, CEO of the WSWA, noted that the data necessitates a shift toward disciplined business planning and highly targeted consumer engagement. The forecast highlights distinct variations in performance across categories: Vodka is currently positioned to outperform the broader market, while Rum, Irish Whiskey, and Brandy continue to trail. Meanwhile, U.S. Whiskey and Scotch segments are banking on 'affordable luxury' price tiers to drive a gradual recovery. The analysis, developed alongside consulting firm Kearney, relies on a dataset covering 70% of U.S. wholesale volume, providing a granular look at a market that has grown accustomed to persistent headwinds.
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